I am not a news trader. I do not try to “profit from the headline” as a style. The longer guide on this site already covers that path and its risks: news trading.
What I need is simpler: a rule so an event cannot turn a planned swing into an accident.
Three modes. I pick one before the session.
Mode A — Sit out
I use this when:
– The event lands inside my normal hold time
– My stop would have to sit closer than the average event range of that market
– I would be guessing the first reaction
Sitting out is a position. I still open the platform if I need to watch, but I do not send tickets for 30 minutes before through 15 minutes after a tier-1 print (CPI, NFP, FOMC decision, a mega-cap earnings print if I am in that name).
Mode B — Cut size
I use this when I already have a swing that is valid on the daily map and I do not want to flatten a thesis because of one print.
Cut means half or quarter of normal risk, not “a little less.” If the event range can tag my stop as a matter of routine, I am not cutting size. I am in Mode A.
Mode C — Flatten
I flatten when the trade was only a session idea, or when I cannot state the thesis without the event. Intraday leftover risk into a number is not bravery.
How I decide the night before
I look at the calendar when I mark the week. If a red-folder event is on the page, I write the mode next to it. I do not decide during the 3-minute candle before the print. That decision is just adrenaline.
A rough filter I like:
– If last three similar events moved my market more than my planned stop, Mode A.
– If I am already in a daily swing with room beyond that average range, Mode B.
– If I opened the trade today and the number is this afternoon, Mode C.
None of that is a forecast of this week’s number. It is housekeeping.
What I never do on a news day
– Widen a stop “so the spike can breathe”
– Add to a loser because “the market overreacted”
– Turn a sit-out day into three revenge scalps after the number
Those three are how event days become the worst line in the journal
If you only steal one line from this note: pick the mode when you write the calendar, not when the headline hits.